In the Know

2020: the year ahead. Maybe?

It’s been a strange old decade, the 2010s. We’ve seen interest rates go places we thought impossible, central banks do things we never expected and, here in the UK, had more than our fair share of votes. A new year beckons, so the time is upon me to channel the Great Fate and divine the future from the tea leaves of the financial markets. So will the coming year see the return of the flapper or the roaring twenties? Behold* …

1. UK equities will outpace all other developed markets

2. British interest rates will rise by 0.25% to 1.00% in the second quarter as new governor
Andrew Bailey stretches his muscles

3. The 10-year gilt yield will close at 1.60% by the end of 2020

4. Trump will be re-elected and give up Twitter (the last bit is hope over expectation)

5. US/EU trade war rhetoric will catch fire and German auto sales will slump even further than
they already have

6. Mergers & acquisitions in the UK will pick up significantly, particularly cross-border – watch
out for US financials looking for bargains. In this vein, Fox News will buy Channel 4

7. UK retailers will continue to blame Brexit and the weather for poor performance

8. “The authorities” will overreact to the Woodford affair because they will feel like they must
do something or look weak; other finance firms will take the brunt while Neil Woodford
pivots to the East for a new venture

9. Amazon will introduce negative-one-hour delivery time in London, i.e the delivery arrives
before you order it due to advances in big data and AI

10. Jeremy Corbyn will win Strictly, giving him the mandate to remain at the head of the Labour
Party “for at least another year”

*My predictions are not investment advice, indeed should barely be trusted; there isn’t enough salt in
the UK to keep the roads ice-free, let alone adequately season my predictions.


David Coombs
Head of Multi-Asset Investments

David will be speaking at our upcoming Annual Scotsman Investment conference. To book your free ticket, click here.